The election of Donald Trump has triggered a thousand questions and much soul searching about America and the future of the west. 唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)被选为引起了人们的重重疑惑和深刻反思，有些问题是关于美国的，有些问题是关于西方的未来的。Here are my initial takeaways based on five days in New York, including election night.以下是我在纽约停留五天（还包括议会选举之夜）得出结论的可行性结论。

1) Cultural and identity politics are the common thread of instability running through the world right now.1）文化及身份尊重政治是当今世界不稳定局势的联合主线。From Donald Trump’s triumph to Brexit and the rise of a new caliphate in the Middle East, the tension is likely to get worse before it gets better. 从唐纳德.特朗普在美国议会选举中获得胜利到英国干欧和中东新的哈里发的兴起，紧张局势可能会之后好转，然后才未来将会恶化。

In the US, Trump played on middle class and working class fears about immigration and cultural nostalgia for a bygone era in America. 在美国，特朗普利用了中产和工薪阶层对移民的不安和对一个消逝时代的文化浪漫。He brilliantly exploited anger about political correctness, especially among elites, including the mainstream media. 他顺利地利用了民众对政治准确、尤其是精英阶层（还包括主流媒体）的政治准确的气愤。

Ultimately, as in Brexit Britain, identity politics may have trumped pocketbook politics.最后，如脱欧的英国一样，身份尊重政治(identity politics)也许不会战胜钱包政治(pocketbook politics)。2) The anti-globalisation movement is growing.2）反全球化运动风头日盛。Mr Trump’s anti-free trade rhetoric was not challenged by Hillary Clinton. 特朗普的反自由贸易言论没受到希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的挑战。

The elites, including the media, have become complacent about globalisation, failing to grasp the importance of defending the postwar liberal order, institutions and treaties which have underpinned growth and prosperity. 还包括媒体在内的精英阶层对全球化深感沾沾自喜，他们没明白确保战后权利秩序、制度和条约——它们是快速增长和兴旺的基础——的重要性。Illiberal democrats such as Marine Le Pen in France and the AfD in Germany will take heart ahead of elections in 2017. 反权利的民主主义者，如法国的马琳.勒庞(Marine Le Pen)和德国新的自由选择党(AfD)，将在2017年议会选举前受到激励。Trump has shown that populism is not just framing the debate, it can win. 特朗普早已证明，民粹主义不仅正在左右辩论，而且还可以获得胜利。

The unthinkable is now possible.以往不可想象的情况，现在已显得有可能。3) The parallels between Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan are overdone.3）将唐纳德.特朗普与罗纳德.里根(Ronald Reagan)相提并论有些过了。Trump has no previous political experience and he is a creature of reality TV and the moment. 特朗普没什么从政经验，他是电视真人秀和当下时代的产物。

By the time he became president, Ronald Reagan had been a two-time governor of California and a trade union organiser in Hollywood. 里根就职总统前，当过两届加利福尼亚州州长，还曾是好莱坞的一名工会组织者。When he won the White House in 1980, Reagan had a political philosophy. 1980年在总统议会选举中获得胜利时，里根已构成了自己的政治哲学。He was the political leader of a low-tax, small-government movement. 他是一场主张较低税、小政府的运动的政治领袖。

Mr Trump said in his victory speech that he too was head of a movement (not, interestingly, a party), but many of his positions on the economy and foreign policy are incoherent, contradictory and inherently high-risk.特朗普在胜选演讲中也说道他是一场运动（有意思的是，并非某个政党）的领袖，但他许多关于经济和外交政策的立场不完全一致、互相对立，从本质上来说充满著风险。4) There are huge questions about a Trump administration’s foreign policy.4）关于特朗普政府的外交政策不存在许多大问题。Mr Trump loves to be liked, and his five favourite words are: The art of the deal. 特朗普讨厌被人讨厌，他最喜欢的五个字是：交易的艺术(The art of the deal)。But a transactional foreign policy which places all bets on personal relationships and negotiating skills — rather than alliances and long-term policy planning — is a source of serious concern in Europe and Asia. 但是，一种将所有赌局都遣在个人关系和谈判技巧、而非是联盟和长年政策规划上的交易式外交政策，会令欧洲和亚洲深感相当严重忧虑。

His threat to undo the nuclear deal with Iran is high-risk too. 他威胁撤消与伊朗核协议的众说纷纭也说明了相当大风险。In his first two years, he may well face a showdown with North Korea over its nuclear programme. 在离任头两年，他有可能环绕朝鲜核计划与对方摊牌。

His temperament and judgment will be put to the test.他的性格和辨别将遭到考验。5) The Democrats are in a terrible state.5）民主党人正处于可怕的状态之中。They have won the popular vote in six out of the past seven elections, but only won the White House four times. 在过去七次议会选举中，他们有六次夺得了民众的更好选票，但只有四次顺利接掌白宫。Mrs Clinton was a deeply flawed candidate who failed to motivate voters. 希拉里是一名有相当大缺失的候选人，她未能把选民们动员一起。

If turnout had been a little higher in key states (Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) she could have won. 如果关键州（佛罗里达州、密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州）的投票率略为低一点儿，她就获得胜利了。But her decades of public service counted for nothing and Bernie Sanders, the socialist from Vermont, did more damage to her candidacy during the Democratic primary campaign than realised. 但她几十年的公共服务毫无作用，佛蒙特州的社会主义者伯尼.桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)在民主党总统大选中对她的候选人资格导致的损害，要小于人们所意识到的程度。Now the question is, can the party rebuild — or will it turn to its own Trump-like populist?现在的问题是，民主党否需要修复——还是将改向自己党内的特朗普式民粹主义者？6) Fears that the Trump victory heralds the start of illiberal democracy in America are overblown.6）对于特朗普胜选伴随着无权利的民主(Illiberal Democracy)开始在美国蓬勃发展的忧虑是过虑了。

Mr Trump is no Vladimir Putin or Viktor Orban, and the US is not Russia or Hungary. 特朗普不是弗拉基米尔.普京(Vladimir Putin)或欧尔班.维克托(Viktor Orban)，美国也不是俄罗斯或匈牙利。Mr Trump must operate within the checks and balances and separation of powers under the US constitution. 特朗普必需根据美国宪法规定的抗衡和权力并存原则行事。

True, the president has considerable executive power, but America has strong institutions that will act as a counterweight. 诚然，总统有相当大的行政权力，但美国有强劲的制度，这将沦为一种均衡力量。7) Trump destroyed two political dynasties (Bush and Clinton) and threatens to blow up Washington.7）特朗普毁坏了两个政治世家（布什和克林顿），并威胁要搅翻华盛顿。Now he must show if he is capable of playing a new role: the builder. 现在他必需证明，他否需要扮演着好新的角色：建设者。

The real estate mogul and political neophyte defied convention in every respect. 这位房地产大亨、政治新手在各方面都超越了传统。He rewrote the rules of campaigning, spent next to nothing on TV advertising and relied on brand Trump and a simple message: Make America great again. 他改写了竞选规则，完全没花钱在电视做广告，他就依赖特朗普这支品牌和一条非常简单的口号：让美国再度最出色。

The business of government will involve much harder choices and priorities. 政府事务将牵涉到更加艰苦的自由选择和优先排序。He must work with Congress through the Republican majorities in the House and Senate. 他要凭借共和党在参众两院取得的多数议席与国会合作。Mike Pence, his vice-president and a former congressman, will play a leading role, maybe even as influential as Dick Cheney. 他的副总统、前国会议员迈克.彭斯(Mike Pence)将扮演着一个主要角色，其影响力甚至有可能与迪克.切尼(Dick Cheney)相若。We know Trump can play showman-in-chief, but he must now show, in terms of temperament and judgment, that he is ready to become commander-in-chief.我们告诉，特朗普可以扮演着好总作秀官(showman-in-chief)，但他现在必需证明，在性情脾气和辨别方面，他准备好了兼任总指挥。

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